Basenjis are often stingy with their tail wags. Some of mine seldom wagged, but if something particularly pleased them they would. Watching a prey animal that was close to the window, e.g. chipmunk, would evoke a wag. Anticipation?
Yes, rewarding a behaviour will increase the chances of seeing it again, but one has to be a little careful. If you make too much of a fuss over a dog when you return, it can feed separation anxiety if your dog has any tendencies to that behaviour. I was happy when my dog didn't really acknowledge me after a short absence. I must admit, I liked to be greeted if I had been gone for a week, but that didn't always happen with all of mine! Getting an "oh, you're back" low key reaction was something I strived for with my last two boys, since both had separation issues and keeping things very matter of fact kept that problem at bay.